5/12/2016

Fearnleys Dry Bulk Market Report

Capesize An overall negative sentiment with rates under pressure in the Pacific as well as in the Atlantic. Although west Australia round voyage found a floor in the mid 3's pmt, general demand in the pacific is low and activity weak. Same goes for the backhaul, transatlantic and fronthaul routes, where index seems to be lagging behind actual rates. Period activity is unchanged from last week. Panamax Sliding in Atlantic, flat and uninspiring in Pacific, or is it vice versa? In general the market is moving sideways without any clear direction in lack of a fresh injection. Depending on vessel size, spec’s and trade, fixtures are close to last done +/-.TA rounds are in the 5.000 range and fronthaul, although limited from the North Atlantic is abt 8.500. ECSA grain is still alive, at abt 7.250 + 225 APS. Activity stable and rates in the eastern hemisphere hovering in the 4.500-5.500 range, with many Owners aiming at long ECSA runs if relevant.The forward curve is flat at the mid 5 mark for the next 2 years, and although period takers seems few, regular LME’s achieve low/mid 5’s for the typical 4-7 months or 1 yr. Supramax It has been a week with mixed signals in both hemispheres. The levels in the north Atlantic has been fairly stable at ard 6,500 for TA's. We do however see that the pressure out of ECSA and Safr is coming off and this could again put pressure on the north. In the Pacific we basically see the same levels as last week, but sentiment is coming off. Smaxes are still being fixed at USD 5k dely Spore for trip China and USD 6k for India direction. There are still some NoPac cargoes in the market but the activity is drastically down. We do believe we will see softening rates going forward short term. Period activity has been scarce this week.