9/29/2014

China offers hope for the dry cargo market

HSBC’s Analyst Doug Mavrinac says  flash Chinese PMI reading for September reached 50.5, up from 50.2 in August.
Analyst Doug Mavrinac wrote in his weekly report. “Despite market anxieties to the contrary, the still-expanding Chinese economy is likely to provide sufficient demand to absorb the increasing quantities of seaborne iron ore supply, translating to improving dry bulk shipping demand in the coming weeks/month,” Capesize rates slipped by over a fifth to $11,246 daily last week. Today the Baltic Dry Index climbed 1.2% to 1,062 with capsizes adding 70 points.
There was also some good news in the coal trade. Arctic Securities points out Indian coal output is to fall behind domestic demand, potentially pushing up imports by 40% from 2013 levels to 200 million tons within a couple of years.
Analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth says Indian coal stock piles at power generators are already at the lowest level since the 2012 blackout.“The shortage will have to be solved through increased imports, and we see Indonesia, South Africa and Australia as obvious sources,” he said in a report today. “Increased reliance on imported Coal in India would offer dry bulk owners some relief after the Chinese government recently set out to cut coal imports by 50m tons for the remainder of 2014.