Fearnleys Dry Bulk Market Report / October 7, 2015

Capesize Depressive start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mid 5's. There is still a hope rates will improve when the Chinese are back from holidays, although it seems unlikely given the drop in rates on the last day of the break. Period rates have been under pressure accordingly, and owners with period tonnage tend to fix their ships for shorter duration voyages whilst awaiting better rates; Most people agree a spike in rates will happen, the question is when, how long it will last and how substantial the improvement in rates will be. Panamax Despite the Chinese being off most of the week, the market is holding surprisingly well in both hemispheres. Expectations for Q4 in general and for USG in particular have contributed to Owners upping rates for trips out. 12.800 + 280 done from USG early week. Transatlantic activity is a bit reduced and not showing the same strength. However, Owners are able to secure a tick better levels, up to around 5-6 K. Pacific activity is limited, but some stronger fixtures are being reported; above 7.000 for Aussie rounds and above 8.000 for trips to India. The forward curve is moving sideways with a clear backwardation for Q1. Period activity also a bit subdued with levels in the 7's for short medium duration. Handy Chinese Golden Week has had a marked effect on the activity levels this past week. In the Far East, rates are still flat and below the index, giving little reason for a paper rally. In the Atlantic the story is the same. Most players are hoping things pick upon China is back, that next weeks Coaltrans is over. The lack of activity and mismatch between the paper and the physical market has slowed period fixing. Only a couple of fixed price deals have been rumoured.