Fearnleys Dry Bulk Weekly Report

Capesize All-time low and seemingly no immediate end to the misery. Volumes on the Brazil/China iron ore marker trade are very far from expectations, and resultant levels are down another 18% w-o-w to around USD 11500/day. Spot coal trades remains negligible, and modest iron ore volumes on the Waust/China run simply cannot absorb the number of units still trading. Both index, down 33% last 5 trading days to come in at USD 5k/day, and actual daily return (which is lower), indicate increased idling/layup and finally scrapping to be expected. Forward curve is still one of backwardation, and period business is concluded sub-OPEX. Panamax We are now facing all time low’s on the BDI and we touched the all time low in the Pmax market as well. There is not a whole lot of optimism to report in the market. Some cargo players are selling off before year end, thus we see more cargoes out of USG/USEC and Baltic, allthough the tonnage is outnumbering cgos and offering in belw last done. TA’s are now paying ard USD 3k, and Fhauls from ECSA fixing at ard USD 5,500 + USD 150k GBB. In the Pacific we see similar lvls for the rounds ie 3-3,5k and although the magic 6k marker got shaded for 1 year period we now see ows willing to fix 5,5-5,750 for 11/14 mos. Handy Supras seem to be hitting bottom. There is even talk of cold layup as owners are not willing to continue to trade at present levels. With returns well below opex, this may be quite possible. In the Far East, the open ship count was about the same as last week, resulting in a flat market. The Atlantic has not had much to show either, with the front haul market from South American almost not commanding a Ballast Bonus and Rounds returning below USD 4000 there has been little to celebrate.