Capesize rates finally UP

After a disastrous run in the fourth quarter of 2014 and a slack start to 2015, capesize rates climbed from Friday’s black spot of $3,300 daily to $4,100 daily at the start of this week. It comes amid suggestions from Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth that a capesize has entered a one-year period deal at just over $10,000 daily, one of the worst levels on record.
Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth said
“The quoted levels are at or below the levels reported during the abysmal 2012 when one year TCs troughed at 10,200 day in Aug-12 and we have to go back to Nov-01 or most of 1999 to find an equally soft market over the past 20 years. Hence, we see the pessimism in capes close to a nadir with limited downside.”
According to Clarksons slow activity out of both Brazil and Western Australia hauled the capesize market down by 22% last week. 25 capesizes are idle off South Africa, with 20 in Singapore and 20 in China.
Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth notes the Baltic Dry Index sat at 709 points on Friday, the lowest on record.  This is below the lowest level on record (1987 with 727) and another point in case for ‘peak pessimism.